Oroville Dam Level Forecast – 2017.2.15, 09.53GMT

Continuing from yesterday’s forecast.

Today’s data is included at the foot of this article.

This is what we believe the reservoir levels will look like over the next week. This forecast is assuming best case scenario on ground saturation ie that the ground is not completely saturated.

oroville_dam_height_forecast_17_2_15

Oroville Official Updates & Weather Data

Wunderground have increased their forecast cumulative rainfall for the next 8 days.

Director of operations at the dam is claiming that forecast rainfall is much lower than last week.

This is not correct according to Wunderground forecast and historic data

https://www.wunderground.com/us/ca/oroville/zmw:95965.1.99999?MR=1

If they are predicting a lot precipitation will fall as snow, this would explain the directors claim of storm being less serious than last week.

The director has also claimed in previous press conferences that the maximum flow rate for the main spillway is over 150,000 cubic feet per second. They are choosing to outflow only 99,999 cubic feet per second.

There is already flooding occurring downstream

If the Wunderground forecast is close to being accurate, downstream flooding will get worse over the next 7 days

 

Oroville Dam Summary

At the moment we do not understand why the authorities would even be considering using the emergency spillway, it is not suitable.

The main spillway has the capacity to deal with any volume of inflow the lake is forecast.

Best case scenario flooding downstream increases slightly with no further erosion of spillways at dam.

Worst case scenario, authorities, for no good reason, decide to use emergency spillway.

Updated forecast data

Month Day Rainfall 3 Day Roll Rainfall Lake Level Outflow In Flow Inflow Net
2 15 33 Forecast 33 882 66000 -5.1
2 16 22 Forecast 55 883.5 110000 1.5
2 17 29 Forecast 84 893.7 168000 10.2
2 18 2 Forecast 53 894.6 106000 0.9
2 19 15 Forecast 46 893.4 92000 -1.2
2 20 30 Forecast 47 892.5 94000 -0.9
2 21 13 Forecast 58 894.9 116000 2.4
2 22 9 Forecast 52 895.5 104000 0.6
2 23 1 Forecast 23 887.4 46000 -8.1
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