OROVILLE DAM LEVEL FORECAST – 2017.2.17, 08.00GMT

Continuing our daily dam water level forecasts

oroville_dam_height_graph_forecast_17_2_17

Today we have included predicted inflows into the lake.

This figures look at lot worse than yesterday but there is one reason why we do not believe the lake level will breach 900 feet

Wunderground may have jumped the shark with their cumulative precipitation figures. They are predicting a massive 30mm of precipitation today and 53mm and 54mm on the 19th and 20th.

In our experience Wunderground constantly overestimates rainfall.

The authorities at the dam are also relying on a lot of precipitation falling as snow

Areas for concern.

We have not be logging predicted temperatures until now but we believe the forecast temperatures are much warmer than what was predicted a few days ago, although we can not be sure. If temperatures are higher, this can possibly be problematic because the authorities at the dam have been depending on the precipitation falling as snow, not rain.

As of now on Wunderground, 10c is the max low temperature forecast for the 21.2.17 and temperatures will drop from there to 4c nightime temperature until 24.2.17

Facebook Link (Login Maybe Required) >> 16.2.17 Press conference

Weather updates local TV http://www.krcrtv.com/krcr-news-channel-7-live-stream

Summary

The higher temperatures are cause for concern.

The Wunderground precipitation figures could be a wild over estimation

Our advice is to keep yourself updated on the lake level situation especially around the 19/20.2.17

Generally though, we find it hard to believe the emergency spillway will be needed. Although flooding downstream is more than possible.

Click this link to see our data sources

Please note: We are not experts. We use the information we have available to formulate our own forecasts. Listen to what local authorities have to say, do what you think is correct

Day Rainfall 3 Day Roll Rainfall Lake Level Outflow In Flow
15 0.2 Actual 0.2 882 23900
16 7.9 Actual 8.1 867.62 26385
17 30 Forecast 38.1 864.05 76200
18 6 Forecast 43.9 862.22 87800
19 53 Forecast 89 873.92 178000
20 54 Forecast 113 892.82 226000
21 16 Forecast 123 914.72 246000
22 4 Forecast 74 921.92 148000
23 0 Forecast 20 912.92 40000
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